Quick answer
A busy season costs money before it makes money: stock, staff, marketing and equipment are paid for weeks or months ahead. The safest approach is a timeline: forecast the peak early, arrange funding while your statements are still healthy, buy and hire in stages, and rebuild the buffer afterwards. Arranging a facility before the squeeze usually gives better options.
Key points
- Peaks cost money first, so map the spend month by month before the rush.
- Arrange funding while statements are strong, not when the account is thin.
- Stage stock and staffing so you do not commit everything at once.
- After the peak, rebuild the buffer and repay before the next lull.
Everyone loves the peak. The doors are open, the phone rings, the till sings. Fewer people enjoy the three months before it, when the bills arrive for a season that has not yet paid a cent. This guide walks the timeline backwards from the rush, so the cash is in place when the customers are.
Why does a peak cost money before it makes money?
Because the things a peak needs are bought in advance. Stock has to be ordered, shipped and shelved. Extra staff have to be recruited and trained. Marketing has to run before customers decide where to go. Equipment has to be serviced, and premises have to be ready. All of it is cash out, weeks or months ahead of cash in.
Business.gov.au says cash flow can be unpredictable and that small adjustments and planning for quiet periods help a business stay resilient. The same logic applies to busy periods. The faster you grow into a peak, the bigger the bridge between spending and earning.
Step one: forecast the peak (about 4 to 6 months out)
Start with last year. Pull monthly sales for the peak and the months either side. Adjust for what has changed: price, range, location, marketing, competitors, the economy. Then set three scenarios:
- Expected: your best honest estimate.
- Low: 20 to 30 per cent below expected.
- High: where you would be if everything works.
Plan the spend around the expected case, check the business survives the low case, and keep the high case in mind for stock flexibility.
Use a twelve-month cash flow statement. Business.gov.au provides a free template with opening balance, cash in, cash out and closing balance for each month. Fill it with last year’s actuals first, then this year’s plan.
Step two: find the low point (4 to 5 months out)
On your cash flow statement, find the month your closing balance falls furthest. It is usually just before or early in the peak, when the spending is highest and the sales have barely begun.
The size of that dip, plus a buffer, is roughly the funding you need to put in place. The Dough gap calculator gives a quick version for a single squeeze, and shows how many weeks of runway you have.
An illustration, using no real business. A garden centre earns most of its income from September to December. Between July and September it spends about $85,000 on plants, pots, extra labour and advertising. It has $25,000 in the bank, and expects $15,000 of sales over those months before the real rush starts. The low point is around negative $45,000, so the funding need is about $45,000 plus a buffer of say $10,000, or $55,000.
Step three: arrange the funding (3 to 4 months out)
This is the step owners most often leave too late. Lenders read your recent statements. If you apply during your quiet season, the picture is thin. If you apply while trading is strong, you look like what you are: a healthy business planning ahead.
Options, depending on the pattern:
| Situation | Often fits |
|---|---|
| Same swing every year | Business line of credit |
| One big known cost | Working-capital loan |
| Large stock buy, owner has property | Property-backed funding |
For trading businesses, unsecured funding is typically $5,000 to $500,000, sized on turnover and bank statements. Property-secured funding runs from $20,000 to $5,000,000. Same-day funding is possible for smaller unsecured amounts, but arranging early means you are not relying on speed.
Step four: buy and hire in stages (2 to 3 months out)
Do not commit everything on one day. Staging protects you if the season turns out different from the forecast.
- Stock: place the core order first. Hold a second tranche for later, and order it only if early sales justify it. Business.gov.au suggests avoiding overstocking and buying stock when orders come in where possible.
- Staff: recruit and train the essentials early, but keep casual or flexible hours for the extra. Check the total cost of employment, including super, before you commit. From 1 July 2026, the ATO says Payday Super means super is paid with each wage payment, so the cost arrives sooner.
- Marketing: front-load the activity that creates early bookings or pre-orders, which also give you a read on demand.
- Equipment and premises: schedule servicing and repairs now, not during the rush.
Step five: run the peak (the season itself)
Watch the numbers weekly, not monthly. Compare actual sales and cash with the plan. If sales run ahead, consider releasing the second tranche of stock. If they run behind, hold it and trim hours.
Keep your collections tight. A rush of sales on credit can create a mountain of receivables, and the cash can arrive just as the quiet season begins. Invoice promptly, set clear terms and chase early, as set out in our guide to days to get paid.
Set aside the tax. A strong quarter means a strong BAS. The ATO lists quarterly due dates of 28 October, 28 February, 28 April and 28 July for quarterly lodgers, so check which falls just after your peak. Our tax-dough jar guide shows how.
Step six: rebuild after the rush
When the peak ends, the temptation is to relax. This is exactly when to:
- Repay what you drew, or the portion your plan calls for.
- Rebuild the buffer for the quiet months ahead. See slow-season funding.
- Clear slow stock at sensible discounts, turning it back into cash.
- Review what happened. What did sales do against the forecast? Which lines sold? Which stock lingered?
- Write it down. Next year’s plan starts from this year’s lessons.
A sample six-month calendar
To make the timeline concrete, here is how a seasonal retailer with a peak starting in November might lay it out.
| Month | What happens | Cash effect |
|---|---|---|
| May | Review last year, build forecast, find the low point | None yet |
| June | Apply for or confirm the funding facility | Facility in place, nothing drawn |
| July | Place core stock order, agree supplier terms | First draw or payment |
| August | Recruit and train core seasonal staff | Wages begin |
| September | Marketing launches, second tranche of stock decided | Ad spend, possible second draw |
| October | Fit out displays, final checks, tax set aside | Costs peak |
| November to December | Trade the peak, track weekly | Cash comes back |
| January | Repay, rebuild buffer, clear slow stock | Cash settles |
Your calendar will differ, but the shape is the same: decide early, fund early, spend in stages and review after. The owners who struggle are almost always the ones who skip a column.
What are the common mistakes?
- Planning only the spend, not the cash. The sums have to cover timing, not just totals.
- Leaving funding until the account is thin.
- Betting everything on the high case.
- Forgetting tax.
- Skipping the review. The lessons are what make next year easier.
How do I cope if the peak arrives early or late?
Weather, school holidays, a viral post or a supplier delay can shift a peak by a fortnight either way. If it comes early, you need the stock and staff sooner, so keep a little flexibility in your facility and your supplier relationships. If it comes late, you carry the spending for longer, so check that your funding leaves room. Plan the buffer around a two-week slip in each direction, and your forecast will survive most surprises.
How do I get started?
Pick your next peak, find the date it begins and count back. If the funding step is coming up, or already late, tell us about your season. A lending specialist reads each enquiry and calls you. There is no credit check just to ask, and your details are not sprayed over a heap of lenders. Accurate figures and a clear calendar help us suggest the right option first time. See if you qualify before the rush begins.
Frequently asked questions
How early should I start planning for a peak?
As early as your longest lead time. If stock takes ten weeks to arrive and suppliers want payment in advance, planning starts at least three months before the peak.
Should I use a line of credit or a loan for a peak?
A line of credit suits peaks that repeat each year because you draw and repay as the season unfolds. A loan suits a single, known cost. Property-backed funding can support larger needs.
What if the peak is weaker than I forecast?
Stage your spending so that you can slow down. Keep the last tranche of stock or hours flexible, and plan repayments that work even if sales come in lower.
Can a new business plan for a peak?
Yes, though without prior-year data you will rely on estimates. Use any pre-orders, bookings or comparable businesses as guides, and be conservative.
Do lenders care about seasonality?
They like to see it understood. A short note on your calendar and a previous year's statements showing a peak and recovery are persuasive.